Second Consecutive, Negative Holiday Shopping Season Is Underway

Collapsing October 2019 Production, Retail Sales and Freight Activity
Suggested a Quarterly Contraction in Real Fourth-Quarter 2019 GDP;
N.Y. and Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast Models Currently at 0.8% and 1.3%

Amidst Increasingly Impaired Indicators of Economic and Systemic Health, the
Flummoxed FOMC Should Be Easing Anew at Its December Meeting,
Despite Current Protestations to Contrary

FOMC Claim of Sustainable, Moderate Economic Growth Was Nonsense and
Is Evaporating; Market Expectations Should Move Towards Expanded Easing,
With Dollar Selling and Flight to Gold Likely to Intensify

Consensus Economic Outlook Increasingly Should Tumble,
Amidst Unfolding Negative Headline Activity, Combined With Pending,
Corrective Downside Benchmark Revisions to Key Series through July 2020

Overstated Growth for Retail Sales, Manufacturing and Related Series,
Reflected Data Disruptions, Distortions and Delays from the Partial
Government Shutdown and Related Federal-Budget Constraints

Market Recognition of the Unfolding Economic Downturn Continues to Mount, but
Formal Recession Recognition Is Not Likely Before Late-2020